One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) for Advocates
We are looking at the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) and what advocates must do between now and the 2026 election to run and win on it.
We are looking at the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) and what advocates must do between now and the 2026 election to run and win on it.
Key Takeaways:
Best framing: The OBBB wins support when presented as stopping a tax increase, not as a new tax cut.
Reinforced by new data: Winston Group polling shows support rises 3:1 among voters who believe the bill prevented a tax hike—but most voters don’t yet believe it.
Path forward: Republicans must drive home that without the OBBB, Americans would have faced the largest tax increase in history, and Democrats voted to allow it.
Earlier this year, our analysis at America’s New Majority Project showed that the most persuasive way to present the OBBB is not as a new tax cut, but as stopping a scheduled tax increase caused by the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts. Close behind was highlighting the bill’s targeted relief for the working class, small businesses, and families with children.
By contrast, describing the legislation as simply “a historic tax cut” consistently generated far less support.
May: We showed that framing the bill as stopping a tax increase generated stronger support than framing it as extending the 2017 tax cuts.
June: We found the most effective descriptions emphasized stopping the tax increase and targeted relief for the middle class, working families, small businesses, and parents with children.
July: In hypothetical candidate matchups, the largest gains over the generic ballot came when Republicans were described as voting to stop the largest tax increase in American history, while Democrats were described as voting to allow it. A similar, though slightly smaller, advantage came from highlighting the targeted tax cuts.
Now, the Winston Group has released new results that reinforce these findings. Their analysis shows that the most decisive factor shaping support for the OBBB is whether voters believe it prevented a tax increase on them and their family.
Among those who believe the bill prevented a tax increase, support is overwhelming—74% in favor to 22% opposed.
Among those who do not believe the bill prevented a tax increase, opposition is just as strong—72% opposed to 24% in favor.
The challenge: More voters currently believe the OBBB did not prevent a tax increase (48%) than believe it did (33%). These numbers echo Winston’s 2018 post-election findings that only 36% of voters thought the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered taxes for people like them. In short, today’s messaging challenge around the OBBB mirrors yesterday’s failure to clearly communicate the benefits of the 2017 tax cuts.
The facts are clear:
The 2017 tax law lowered taxes for every single American.
Without the OBBB, those tax cuts would have expired—raising taxes on the average family of four by about $1,700.
Without the OBBB, American workers would have faced a total tax increase of $4 trillion—the largest in U.S. history.
The roadmap forward:
Between now and the 2026 election, Republicans must drive home one central point: Without the OBBB, Americans would have faced the largest tax increase in history—and every single Democrat in Congress voted to allow it.
That should be the message from now until Election Day.
Other Numbers that Matter