Voter Split on Shutdown Fight – But Few Want More Spending
Americans overwhelmingly oppose more spending but also prioritize keeping the government open—leaving both parties in a bind.
Many Who Oppose More Spending Still Want Compromise to Avoid a Shutdown
Fewer than 1-in-5 voters want Congress to pass a budget that increases spending. A plurality (40%) would blame Democrats if the government shuts down if Democrats refuse to vote for a bill that doesn’t increase spending.
However, Americans also believe avoiding a shutdown is important, and many who oppose more spending prioritize avoiding a shutdown.
WHY IT MATTERS
Congress must pass a budget by Sept. 30 or parts of the federal government will close. On Friday, the Republican-controlled House passed a short-term bill that keeps spending at current levels. In the Senate, the bill needs 60 votes, requiring some Democratic support. So far, Senate Democrats are demanding higher spending in exchange for their votes.
HOW TO USE THIS DATA
Opponents of more spending should avoid appearing indifferent to a shutdown’s impact.
Emphasize a willingness to compromise while standing firm on spending.
Use the facts to show that Democrats are the ones making unreasonable demands.
Click on the image below for the report with crosstabs or read the summary below.
Fewer than 1-in-5 Want More Spending
Just 18% want Congress to increase spending, including 14% of Republicans, 25% of Democrats, and 14% of independents.
42% of all voters want a budget bill that cuts spending, including 57% of Republicans, 31% of Democrats, and 40% of independents.
22% want Congress to leave spending where it is, including 18% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats, and 20% of swing voters.
3-in-4 Say It’s Important to Avoid a Government Shutdown
76% of voters say it’s important that the government not shut down, including 47% who say it is very important.
Partisans are more likely to say it is “very important” than independents and swing voters.
However, the key voter target group of “unconverted MAGA” (those who support Trump policies but didn’t choose Republican on the generic ballot) are more opposed to a shutdown than the overall population. Eighty percent say it is important that the government does not shut down, and 53% say it is very important.
Given Context, Plurality Would Blame Democrats for Shutdown
Without information about the Democrats’ insistence on more spending, just 21% would blame Democrats if the government shuts down. Thirty-five percent would blame Republicans and 35% would blame both parties.
Given context, 40% would blame Democrats – an increase of 19 points. Twenty-six percent would blame both parties, and 24% would blame Republicans – a decrease of 11 points.
Americans Divided on if Republicans Should Give Democrats More Spending to Avoid a Shutdown
39% say Republicans should give Democrats more spending to avoid a shutdown, while 37% say Republicans should hold the line – even if that means the government shuts down. Twenty-four percent don’t know.
Partisan divisions are high, with just 19% of Republicans saying their party should compromise, but 68% of Democrats saying Republicans should. Independents are divided (32% for compromise to 36% for holding the line).
The key voter target group of “unconverted MAGA” voters – who attached a high importance to avoiding a government shutdown - lean more toward compromise, with 40% preferring Republicans giving Democrats more spending and 32% saying they should hold the line.
34% of those who oppose more government spending would still prefer Republicans give Democrats what they want to avoid a shutdown. This includes 27% who want Congress to cut spending and 46% of those who want them to keep spending where it is.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Americans reject more spending but still expect Congress to avoid a shutdown. The side seen as most unreasonable will bear the blame.