Winning with One Big Beautiful Bill
Polling shows that most voters don’t know what’s in the One Big Beautiful Bill. When they do, support for Republicans rises sharply—especially in key target groups. Here are the top 5 provisions and how to talk about them.
How Highlighting 5 Key OBBB Provisions Can Flip Swing Voters and Secure a GOP Majority in 2026
On July 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) into law. The bill passed the House and Senate with zero Democratic votes and the Democrats have made the legislation a centerpiece of their 2026 campaign.
Recent polling shows that support for the bill is low, however, so is awareness of what is in the bill. That means that there is room to change voter opinions about the bill – and candidate preferences based on their support for it.
WHY IT MATTERS
Many provisions in the OBBB are popular, but voters don’t know they exist. Those who voted for and supported the OBBB must be able to explain the pro-worker, pro-family, pro-small business policies in the bill. Otherwise, voters will rely on the Democrats’ campaign communications and hostile, inaccurate coverage from the news media.
HOW TO USE THIS DATA
In our latest survey, we revealed the most impactful facts about the OBBB that move votes for Congress. We show that when voters understand what Republicans supported – and Democrats unanimously opposed – support for GOP candidates increases significantly.
Click on the image below to read the full report…or read the summary below.
WHAT WE TESTED
Candidate matchups measuring support for a generic Republican and Democrat for Congress.
Candidate matchups measuring support for a Republican candidate who voted in favor of specific items in the OBBB, and that for a Democrat who voted against them.
We focused most closely on improvements in support for the Republican candidate among key target voter groups:
The New Majority – Roughly 72% of voters who share center-right values but with whom Republicans currently underperform. If the GOP could consistently earn 70% of their support, it could build a governing agenda comparable to FDR’s New Deal coalition.
Unconverted MAGA – About 11% of voters who approve of Trump’s policies but are undecided or plan to vote Democrat for Congress. These are persuadable voters critical to a 206 GOP majority.
GENERIC BALLOT
Among all voters, a generic Democrat led a generic Republican 46%-43%.
Among swing voters, the Democrat led 41%-38%.
Among the New Majority, the Republican led 57% to 28%.
Among Unconverted MAGA voters, the Democrat led 41% with the rest undecided.
MOST PERSUASIVE PROVISIONS IN THE OBBB
After learning about specific OBBB provisions, support for Republicans surged in all groups.
1. Stopping the Largest Tax Increase in U.S. History
The Trump tax cuts of 2017 were set to expire at the end of this year, which would have meant a massive tax increase on every single American. OBBB made the 2017 tax rates permanent, preventing this historic tax increase.
Framing matters. When voters were asked to choose between a Republican who voted to stop the largest tax increase in American history and a Democrat who voted to allow it, support for the Republican rose 17 points among all voters, 18 points among the New Majority and earned 61% of Unconverted MAGA voters.
By contrast, alternative framings generated far less support.
“Largest tax cut in American history” – only a +5 point gain overall, +5 among New Majority voters, and 43% among Unconverted MAGA voters.
“Extending the Trump Tax Cuts of 2017” – just +2 points overall, no gain among New Majority voters, and 35% among Unconverted MAGA voters.
Voters experience this issue as a tax increase being stopped – not as a tax cut or an extension – and Republicans should describe it accordingly.
2. Targeted Tax Cuts for Workers, Families, Seniors, and Businesses
OBBB eliminated taxes on tips and overtime, expanded the child tax credit, cut taxes for seniors, and incentivized U.S. manufacturing. Learning this key fact about the candidates’ votes boosted GOP support by 17 points among all voters, 16 points among the New Majority, and earned 62% of Unconverted MAGA voters.
3. Lower Health Care Costs via Expanded HSAs
The bill increased eligibility for tax-free health savings accounts and expanded what they cover. After learning this, support for the Republican rose 17 points among all voters, 16 points among the New Majority, and reached 56% among Unconverted MAGA voters.
4. Job Training Access for Low-Income Americans
Pell Grants can now be used for job-training programs at community colleges thanks to the OBBB. Learning this drove a 19-point gain for the Republican candidate among all voters, 12 points among the New Majority, and 52% support among Unconverted MAGA voters.
5. Medicaid Reforms and Increased Funding
OBBB strengthened Medicaid by tightening eligibility verification standards, requiring states to contribute their fair share, focusing resources on poor mothers, children, and the disabled, and encouraging able-bodied recipients to work. Furthermore, despite Democratic attacks, Medicaid funding will still rise by $200 billion by 2036 under OBBB – a 31% increase.
When framed as a choice between a Republican who voted for these reforms and a Democrat who voted against them, the Republican gains 9 points among all voters, 10 points among New Majority voters, and earns 48% support among Unconverted MAGA voters.
Earlier polling by America’s New Majority Project also reveals that after seeing pre- and post-OBBB Medicaid spending projections, only 14% of voters describe the GOP budget as a “cut,” while 30% describe it as an increase, and 35% say it “slows the growth” of Medicaid spending.
When asked about lower spending levels due to work requirements, 53% consider them “savings” for safety-net programs, while just 25% call them “cuts.”